Authors: Emma-Liina Marjakangasa, Laura Boscoa, Martijn Versluijsa, Yanjie Xua, Andrea Santangelia, Sari Holopainena, Sanna Mäkeläinena, Sergi Herrandoc, Verena Kellerc, Petr Voříšekc, Lluís Brotonsg, Alison Johnstoni, Karine Princéj, Stephen G. Willisk, Karen Aghababyanl, Vitalie Ajderm, Dawn E. Balmero, Taulant Binop, Kerem Ali Boylaq, Tomasz Chodkiewiczr, Juan Carlos del Moralt , Vlatka Dumbović Mazalu , Alessandro Ferrariniv, Carlos Godinhow , Marco Gustinv, Mikhail Kalyakinc, Peter Knausf, Tatiana Kuzmenkof, Åke Lindströmy,Qenan Maxhuniz, Blas Molinat, Károly Nagy, Dimitrije Radišić, Saša Rajkov, Draženko Z. Rajković, Liutauras Raudoniki, Jovica Sjeničić, Stoycho Stoychev , Tibor Szép , Norbert Teufelbauer, Silvia Ursulm, Chris A. M. van Turnhout, Metodija Velevski, Thomas Vikstrømll , Tomasz Wilks, Olga Voltzitmm , Ingar Jostein Øiennn , Christoph Sudfeldt, Bettina Gerlach , and Aleksi Lehikoinena
Year: 2023
Publication: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publication Link: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213330120
Keywords: community composition, distribution shift, Jaccard dissimilarity, macroecology, resistance
Abstract: Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community
composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries,
coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community’s ability to shift in response to
climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies,
potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive
European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction
between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and
modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and
direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having
the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological
barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community
adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities
are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and
potential losses, in community compositions in the future.